Container Ship Orderbook Hits a Record 13 Million TEU, 38% of the Fleet, as Overcapacity Warnings Grow

The container ship orderbook has reached 13 million TEU, the largest ever. That's 38.3 percent of the existing fleet, the highest ratio since the 2008 financial crisis. Put another way, the ships on order would hold more than the combined fleets of Maersk, CMA CGM and COSCO, three of the four biggest carriers in the world.

The ordering hasn't slowed. Carriers placed a record 5.1 million TEU of new orders in 2025. In the first four months of 2026 they added another 1.9 million TEU, which puts this year on course to beat last year.

Why carriers keep ordering

The short answer is that they can. The big lines made enormous profits during the pandemic and again during the Red Sea crisis. Most have strong balance sheets and cash to spend.

The longer answer is market share. The analysts at Linerlytica describe carriers as "locked in an incessant fight for market share," with ordering that is "unrestrained." MSC, now the largest carrier by a wide margin, grew to the top by ordering heavily and buying second-hand tonnage when others didn't. Its rivals have concluded that if they don't order, they'll lose share for a decade. So everyone orders.

There's also a fleet renewal argument. Environmental rules are tightening, and owners want ships that can burn LNG, methanol or ammonia in future. And some capacity is needed just to hold schedules while ships sail around Africa instead of through Suez.

The delivery wall

Most of these ships arrive in a cluster. About 5.2 million TEU is already scheduled for delivery in 2028, the largest single year on record. Scrapping, meanwhile, is at a twenty-year low. Owners have had no reason to scrap old ships while rates were high and every hull was needed for longer routes.

That combination is what worries analysts. Linerlytica warns that overcapacity "will soon catch up with the market." The early signs are there. Drewry's World Container Index fell for a third straight week this week, down 1 percent to $2,216 per 40-foot container, with rates "under sustained downward pressure due to excess capacity and low demand."

What's holding the market up

For now, disruption is soaking up the excess.

With Hormuz shut since late February and Red Sea routings still mixed, many services still run around the Cape. Each diversion ties up extra ships. Port congestion in Asia and Europe keeps more tonnage waiting at anchor. Gulf cargo is being moved through alternative ports with extra legs and feeders.

Every one of those effects is temporary. When they unwind, the capacity they've been absorbing comes back into the market at the same moment as the new ships.

What it means for shippers and carriers

For cargo owners, the long-term picture is good. More ships chasing the same cargo means lower rates once the disruptions ease, and more bargaining power in contract talks for 2027 and 2028.

For carriers, the picture is harder. The last time the industry ordered this heavily relative to its fleet, around 2007 and 2008, the result was years of losses, a round of bankruptcies (Hanjin in 2016 is the one people remember), and a wave of mergers. Carriers today are bigger and better capitalized. They're also ordering more.

The container industry has always run on cycles. This orderbook tells you where the next downturn is scheduled.